When it comes to new technology, Guy Kawasaki is ahead of the curve. Former Chief Evangelist at Apple and now special adviser to Google in their Motorola division, Kawasaki has long been a Silicon Valley insider. "You can't buy me, but you can rent me," he quips.
This week, Kawasaki tells us what he sees ahead for tech. And with legions of followers on Google+ and Twitter, his predictions carry a lot of weight.
So does Kawasaki have a secret formula for predicting what new technology will be a smash hit? Not quite. He points out that the sites we now see as giants on the Internet did not seem at the outset to be obviously destined for success. He says he expressed skepticism at Twitter when it was first released ("Why would I want to send out a 140 character text message that my cat rolled over?") and disbelief that some models, like eBay, have endured for as long as they have: "This was a company that enabled people to buy used HP printers online."
When it comes down to it, predicting the "next big thing" in tech can't be boiled down to the best business plans or market analysis. "The more I live in Silicon Valley, the more I'm convinced it's better to be lucky than to be smart," he says.